How much will health insurance cost once health reform is fully implemented?
Between $483 per month and $408 per month, depending on which report you read.
There are multiple sources of information that will all give you a different estimate on how much individually purchased “nongroup” health insurance will cost after health reform is fully implemented. Data on how much health insurance costs today is posted here: How Much Does Health Insurance Cost?.
The Congressional Budget Office
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) did an estimate in 2009. In this report they estimated the following average premiums per policy in the nongroup market in 2016:
- Individual Plans: $5,800 / year - $483/ month
- Family Plans: $15,200 / year – $1,267 month
The estimate can be found within the report entitled, Analysis of Health Insurance Premiums Under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act .
The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF) and the Urban Institute (UI)
The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Urban Institute teamed up earlier this year to publish a report entitled, Eliminating the Individual Mandate: Effects on Premiums, Coverage, and Uncompensated Care.
This report is more detailed in some ways than the CBO report. Specifically, their report analyzes what would happen to health insurance costs, enrollment, and a number of other issues if the requirement to buy health insurance, also referred to as the individual mandate, were found to be unconstitutional by the United State’s Supreme Court.
How much does RWJF/UI believe health insurance will cost if the mandate survives? In their analysis they found that if the mandate remains as part of the legislation, the average price people would pay in the “Total Nongroup” health insurance market would be:
- $5,100 per year and $425 per month
- $58 less than the CBO estimate
Assuming the mandate stays in place, the RWJF/UI report also breaks out costs by how much people would pay for insurance in two ways:
- Through a government exchange: $5,200 a year and $433 per month
- Outside of a government exchange: $4,900 a year and $408 per month.
How much does RWJF/UI believe health insurance will cost without a mandate? They estimate that if the mandate is eliminated , but a large percentage of the population buys health insurance and uses health insurance exchanges, the average price people would pay in the “Total Nongroup” health insurance market would be:
- $5,600 per year and $467 per month
- $16 less than the CBO estimate
Assuming the mandate goes away, the RWJF/UI report also breaks out costs by how much people would pay for insurance:
- Bought on an exchange: $5,700/ year vs. $475/month
- Bought off of an exchange: $5,100 year vs. $425/month
You can find these reports at:
- The Urban Institute: Eliminating the Individual Mandate (http://www.urban.org/UploadedPDF/412480-Eliminating-the-Individual-Mandate.pdf)
- Congressional Budget Office letter to Senator Evan Bayh (http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/ftpdocs/107xx/doc10781/11-30-premiums.pdf)